Report numberRA-2003-08
TitleMacro Models in Traffic Safety and the DRAG Family: Literature Review
AuthorsFilip Van den Bossche
Geert Wets
Published byPolicy Research Centre for Traffic Safety 2002-2006
Number of pages46
Document languageEnglish
Partner(s)LUC (nu UHasselt)
Work packageOther: Knowledge traffic unsafety

In this text, a literature review is given of the models in the DRAG family.  These are macro-economic traffic safety models that describe the demand for road use, the accidents and their severity.  The DRAG structure typically decomposes the number of victims into exposure, frequency and severity, which makes it possible to search for evidence of risk substitution among these three dimensions.  The algorithm uses a multiple equation regression structure, enriched with Box-Cox transformations, that corrects for auto-correlation and heteroscedasticity in the residuals.  In the text, the DRAG models are situated within the existing models for traffic safety.  Also, macro models in general in traffic safety are discussed, and the major characteristics are highlighted.  The original DRAG model is introduced, together with the extensions added in DRAG-2, and followed by an overview of other models in the DRAG family.  Apart from the model descriptions, the use of the DRAG models is placed in the context the current research.

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The Policy Research Centre for Traffic Safety carries out policy relevant scientific research under the authority of the Flemish Government. The Centre is the result of a

cooperation between Hasselt University, KU Leuven and VITO, the Flemish Institute for Technological Research.


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